Discover how Spate predicts growth for trends.
Predictive Growth is Spate's proprietary metric for forecasting trend behavior within the next 12-Months by analyzing three years of historical data.
Spate's model evaluates multiple factors, such as seasonality, historical patterns for a specific trend or brands, adjustments for shifts in consumer behavior and platform usage, emerging sub-trends, and macroeconomic indicators. By identifying hidden signals, the model can also project potential rebounds despite current declines based on historical data.
Historically, our data has about a 70% accuracy rate for our predictions, which we rank annually in our Predicted Trends Report. These can be found in the Spotlight Section of the dashboard.
If a trend is classified as a Sustained Decliner but shows predicted growth, it may mean Spate's model has detected signals of possible recovery. If the Confidence Score is marked "Uncertain," it indicates an equal likelihood of growth or continued decline based on current and historical data. Additionally, Sustained Decliners can be influenced by platform usage decline, the same way that Sustained Risers can be influenced by platform usage increase. This is where using our Popularity Index feature in the Overview tab will help you visualize adjusted growth rates indexed against Category growth.
Declining trends may reflect temporary factors like seasonality, market saturation, or external disruptions. This is helpful for analysis and decision making related to Retail Planning, Product Development, and more.
Spate analyzes search trends, social media activity, e-commerce behavior, and industry data to create a comprehensive view of consumer interest and emerging patterns.
Brands can: